Negative Assessment- Nats’ Season as a Disaster

In this season the Nats have seen their best pitcher and their one true “star” go down with a huge injury and will now be lost for all of next season with a huge question mark as to how he will look when he returns.

The Nats have been unable to resign their one true slugger and fan favorite, Adam Dunn, despite Dunn’s willingness to sign a contract at a lower price than what he would likely fetch in the open market.  In fact, its quite possible that the price that Nats ultimately pay for his replacement will actually exceed the amount Dunn himself would have signed for had the Nats made a more competitive offer earlier in the season.  (It is so rare in sports that star players will sacrifice millions of dollars on the free agent market to stay with the home team, especially when that home team sucks.  I don’t think the Nats realize just how bad the Dunn situation is for them in terms of fan relations.)

The Nats have lost one of the best executives in baseball, Stan Katsen and in the process stories have emerged stating that he is leaving because the owners are refusing to spend on the free agent market in a manner necessary to make the Nats competitive.

The man that was penciled in as the Nats’ center-fieldered for the next several seasons, Nyger Morgan, regressed both on and off the field.  Calling into question whether he should even be on the team, let alone starting in Center-field.

Short-Stop Ian Desmond failed to improve in the field in any significant respect calling into question whether or not he can be a viable option as an everyday short-stop.

None of the Nationals questions at Starting Pitcher have been answered and with the injury to Stephen Strasburg they arguably have even more questions than when the season started.

Nationals Season: Signs of Better Days ahead

If the Nationals manage to win just one of their last three games, they will have improved their win total by ten wins.  Granted they only had 59 wins last season so it doesn’t take a lot to improve on that total.  Nevertheless a ten win improvement in the Majors is difficult to accomplish and its precisely what one would hope to see from a team building towards respectability.

Stephen Strasburg lived up to the hype.  Even though his season ended in a huge disappointment, prior to hist injury Strasburg showed that he has the talent to be an elite starter.  Tommy John Surgery is so common now, there is very good reason to expect that in about 12 months Strasburg will resemble phenom we enjoyed this summer and by 2012 he should be ready to take his rightful place at the top of the Nats rotation.  Another important thing that Strasburg showed is that this city can get excited about baseball if you give them something to cheer about.

The emergence of the bull pen.  Quietly the Nats have built one of the best bull-pens in all of baseball.  Considering that most of the pitchers in their bull-pen are young and/or in their prime, there is reason to believe that the Nats bull-pen could be good for seasons to come.

The Desmond-Espinosa combo looks like they could develop into an elite middle-infield.  Its unclear whether they will end up in the positions they played this season (Espinosa may actually be the better Short-stop) but they both showed great athleticism and the ability to change the out-come of games on defense, the base paths, and at the plate.  They both have significant weaknesses, but their strengths and potential are worth being excited about.

In addition to Desmond and Espinosa, the Nats have several young players/pitchers on their roster that have potential to be significant contributors on a winning team.  Wilson Ramos, Jordan Zimmerman, Drew Storen, Ross Detwiler, and Yunesky Maya.  All appear to have the potential to be good players and possibly star players.  Undoubtly several of them will not live up to expectations, but what is exciting is the Nats now have more than a half dozen home-grown young players on their roster that aren’t on the roster by default but because they’ve demonstrated they have the talent to play at the ML level.  This is a far cry from seasons past when the Nationals system was completely devoid of Major League ready talent and the Nationals had to scrape the bottom of other teams barrels (see Elijah Dukes and Lasting Milledge) in order to put some young athletes on the roster.

Ryan Zimmerman is truly an elite player, possibly the best all-around third baseman in baseball.  With another fantastic season, Zimmerman has established himself as one of the game’s greats.

Mike Rizzo is off to a great start as GM.  He’s signed both Strasburg and Harper, drafted Drew Storen, signed Yunesky Maya, and he turned Matt Capps into a top catching prospect (Wilson Ramos).  The Nats farm system and their major league roster has a lot more young talent than it had before he was hired and that talent level has increased at an even more rapid rate since he was promoted to GM.  Ultimately, time will tell whether Rizzo can successfully build a team.  But there doesn’t seem to be any question that he is a huge upgrade over Jim Bowden.

So which assessment is more compelling to you?  Am I leaving anything significant out?

Cowboys – (Win) All of the unknowns surrounding the Redskins make it extremely difficult for the Cowboys to game plan for the Redskins.  McNabb has a big game and Romo throws two picks to a 3-4 Redskins defense he’s never seen.  Redskins win 31-17.

Texans – (Loss) All the fans start talking Superbowl after the win over the Cowboys and Texans bring the Redskins back to earth.  Matt Schabb has a huge game.  Texans 35 Redskins 20

@ Rams – (Win) Not much to say.  Redskins are better than the Rams.  Redskins 28 Rams 13

@ Eagles – (Win) Redskins are fired up for Donovan.  Eagles inability to run the football prevents them from exploiting the Redskins weakness against the Run.  Fred Davis has a huge game catching two TD pass in the redzone.  Redskins 24 Eagles 14

Packers – (Loss) Packers defense completely stifles the Redskin’s offense.  Meanwhile Arron Rodgers continues to be awesome.  Packers 28 Redskins 10

Colts – (Loss) This one is much closer than the experts expect.  Colts 27 Redskins 24

@ Bears – (Win) Cutler throws three picks and fumbles once.  Redskins 31 Bears 20

@ Lions – (Win) Detroit makes it very close, but the Redskins pull it out in the end.  Redskins 17 Lions 14

Eagles – (Loss) The league now has enough film on the new Redskins that surprise is no longer working in their favor.  Eagles 27 Redskins 21

@ Titans - (Loss) McNabb gets hurt and Vince Young gives the Redskins defense fits with his legs.  Titans 28 Redskins 17

Vikings - (Win) Brett Farve is hurt and doesn’t play and Percy Harvin is out with another migraine.  Redskins blitz like crazy and force multiple turnovers.  Redskins 35 Vikings 17.

@ Giants – (Loss) Giants and Redskins are evenly matched this season, but homefield advantage gives the Giants the edge.  Giants 20 Redskins 14

Buccaneers – (Win) Tampa Bay is bad.  Redskins 24 Tampa Bay 10.

@ Cowboys – (Loss) Cowboys are trying wrap up a first round bye and want revenge.  They get it.  Cowboys 31 Redskins 10

@ Jaguars – (Loss)  McNabb is out again with an injury.  Redskins drop out of the Wildcard race with a deflating loss to an inferior opponent.  Jaguars 17 Redskins 14

Giants – (win) Giants come into the game with an outside chance making the playoffs, but the Redskins kill their playoff hopes in a close game.  Redskins 21 Giants 20

Final Record- 8-8

Making these predictions is where the homer in me really comes out.  I really think the Redskins are a 6-10 team, but I just can’t bring myself to pick that.

Here we go….

Cowboys – As much as it kills me, we’re going to lose this game.  The Cowboys have looked like a steaming pile of S this pre-season, but they’re still a pretty good team and I expect them to turn it on game 1.  Call it close 24-21 Cowgirls. L

Texans – This should be a fun game although Andre Johnson could destroy our secondary.  I suspect Hall and strong safety X will be doubling him all day.  Their running game is weak and they have an average defense.  I think we put some points on the board and hold them to field goals.  27 -16. W

@ Rams – A revenge game, even though we beat them last year.  35-10 drubbing. W

@ Eagles – McNabb goes back to Philly and throws up on the field.  Kolb has a breakout game.  42-17. L

Packers – This is the game I’m trying to get tickets for.  I don’t know why.  56-3. L

Colts – This is starting to burn.  63-17. L

@ Bears – The turning point.  Cutler throws 4 picks and ‘Los actually takes one to the house.  27-17. W

@ Lions – Another revenge game.  We don’t lose to the Lions, especially not two years in a row. 27-13. W

Eagles – McNabb proves he can still play and the D has a good day. 24-10. W

@ Titans - Can’t figure this one.  The way they ended last season they could be great.  I’ll say they squeak one out against us in their place. 24-21. L

Vikings - Orakpo gets to Favre early. Upset. 31-17. W

@ Giants – The Giants have another boring season of being ok.  17-10. W

Buccaneers – Offensive explosion. 45-7. W

@ Cowboys – Lose another close one, but Romo gets hurt.  27-24. L

@ Jaguars – The Jaguars are still in the league? 34-17. W

Giants – Lose a close one to just miss the wild card. 17-13. L

There you have it.  9-7.  Not too shabby actually, I’ll take it after a 4-12 season.  Alternatively, they could go 16-0 and I wouldn’t be a bit surprised.

However, the Nats have made remarkable strides in the last 365 days.  I still think they are further away from competing than a lot optimistic fans think, but if they keep aggressively improving the franchise like they have in the past year the Nats may prove me wrong.

Just in the last year the Nationals have added:

Stephen Strasburg ERA 2.97, WHIP 1.12, K 87, BB 17

Drew Storen ERA 2.61

Wilson Ramos (One of the top catching prospects in baseball and ML ready)

Yunesky Maya (International free agent that was pursued by the Yankees, White Sox, among others.  Also ML ready)

Bryce Harper (Baseball Cyborg)

In addition, the Nats shelled out a boat load of money to sign three other highly regarded prospects in the draft.

On top of that they have developed prospect Danny Espinosa (2008 draft pick) at short-stop who has hit 22 home runs in 110 games this season (AA and AAA).  Espinosa could be the Nats answer to the their gaping whole at 2nd base (or Desmond could move to 2nd and Espinosa stay at SS).  In addition, Espinosa could give the Nats someone not named Willingham, Dunn, or Zimmerman who can actually hit the ball out of the ball park once in a while.

Bottomline, the Nats have added a boat load of talent to their franchise in the last 365 days.  If they keep this up, things could be looking very bright for a very long time.

Josh Willingham and Nyger Morgan are not the answer for the Nats in the outfield. In their brief time with the Nationals both Willingham and Morgan have become fan favorites.  Both have also shown significantly flashes of all-star caliber play.  However, both have also shown why their form clubs were willing to gave them away for next to nothing.

Josh Willingham, when 100% healthy as one of the most productive LFs in the NL.  The problem with Willingham is that he breaks down as the season wears on.  In the first half of last season Willingham was extremely productive (BA .304, OPS .995) but then cooled off dramatically in the second half (BA .225, OPS .755).  This season is remarkably similar (BA .281, OPS .913 vs. BA .215, OPS .640).  The one major difference is the break down is more severe this season, with Willingham likely needing surgery on his knee.

Fact is Willingham has never played more than 144 games in a season and at age 31 it is difficult to imagine him becoming “more” durable.  Now, it’s not impossible that Willingham could still be part of a competitive Nats team next season and beyond.  However, its hard see any true contender purposely betting their offensive production down the stretch on player of such questionable durability.

The analysis on Nyger Morgan is similar, accept Morgan has even less of a track record of production.  Morgan was on the verge of what many believed to a break out season, last season.  When he went down with an injury near the end of the season Morgan was hitting .307 with OB% of .369.  Very solid numbers for a lead-off hitter.  However,  prior to 2009 Morgan was simply a bench player on a very bad Pirates team.  Few regarded him as an every day CFer.  This season Morgan has struggled to recover from last season’s injury and has developed a new injury (his hip).  His numbers have been poor (BA .261 and OBP .322).  In addition, several of his weaknesses have been exposed.  He is a poor base-stealer and defensively he struggles to go back on deep fly balls.  He also hits far too many fly ball outs for a player who could/should use his considerable speed to his advantage by hitting the ball on the ground.  In short, there is a reason one of the worst teams in baseball felt comfortable letting Morgan go despite getting very little in return.

So what to do?  Well it looks like the Nats are already looking to rectify the situation.  According to reports (http://theuppercardnetwork.com/?p=9646) the Nationals have serious interest in soon-to-be free agent Carl Crawford.  Crawford plays LF, although some believe he can be a better than average CFer.  He has never played RF.  This leads me to believe that the Nats have recognized that an upgrade is needed in CF or LF.  What I would like to see is the Nats to trade Willingham for whatever they can get and make Morgan compete with Bernadina for the CF between now and the start of next season.  Then I’d like to see the Nats sign a free agent like Crawford or Philly’s Jason Werth to take Willingham’s place in LF.  As for RF, I’d like them to sign an average to slightly above average RFer to a two/three year contract to keep the spot warm for Bryce Harper.

That’s just one possible solution and it’s probably wishful thinking but the fact is if the Nats don’t make significant upgrades in the OF, their dreams of competing will not come true.

1. The White Sox really, really want Adam Dunn ( http://blogs.suntimes.com/whitesox/2010/07/sox_have_made_pitch_for_dunn_-.html ) and they are whining that the price is too high.  The White Sox claim that Mike Rizzo is acting like Adam Dunn is Ryan Howard.  Well this is actually good news for Nats fans for a couple of reasons.  First of all, treating Adam Dunn as though he is as valuable as Ryan Howard is not as off-base as it might seem to the casual fan.  (Check out- http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/acting-like-adam-dunn-is-ryan-howard/)  Mike Rizzo knows what he has in Adam Dunn, one of the most productive and consistent power hitters in the game and demand is quite high for player with Dunn’s offensive productivity.  That doesn’t mean Rizzo isn’t asking for too much, but it is nice to see that Rizzo isn’t going to make a move just for the sake of doing something.

Which brings me to my next point- the fact that Rizzo is asking for a lot means he was serious when he said he really would prefer to keep Dunn in a Nats uniform.  Which gives Nats’ fans like myself hope that we can continue to watch the Lumber Jack mash balls into the stands at Nationals Park for years to come.

2. Nationals agree to terms with a “Traitor to La Revolucion”.  News broke yesterday that the Nationals had agreed to terms with former Cuba National team pitcher Yunesky Maya.  This signing is more significant than just signing a decent international free agent.  It signifies that the Nationals might actually be building a credible international scouting team.  (Several other teams were interested in Maya, including the White Sox, Yankees, and Red Sox.)  This is something the Nationals have lacked since they moved to Washington and is something the Nationals must have if they have any chance of competing in NL East over the long run.

This move is also significant because Maya is 28 and scouts believe he can pitch and be productive right away at the ML level.  A move like this is a small piece of evidence that the Nationals are committed to winning in the near term and are determined not squander the momentum that the organization is currently enjoying as a result of the arrival of Steven Strasburg.

Some very interesting items in there.  Overall, EA doesn’t seem to think much of the Redskins.  As normal with veterans, EA probably gives McNabb and Portis a little too much love with ratings of 89 and 85.  Our OLine is awful compared to the Cowboys.  Highest rated player is 80 in Trent Williams.  Our receivers are terrible as well.

On defense, Fletcher and Landry get a lot of love with 91 and 87 ratings.  Orakpo and Haynesworth get kind of screwed with 85 and 86 ratings.  Our D looks pretty terrible overall in this game.  Lots of players in the low 70s and high 60s will actually play.

It’s going to be fairly challenging to play with the Redskins this year in Madden.  Should be interesting.

Which is why I am skeptical of his argument that Nats need to keep Dunn and Willingham, instead of trading them for prospects.  Mr. Boswell’s main argument is that the Nationals are not that far away from being a winning team and therefore they should commit to keeping the two sluggers for a few more years and have two less needs to fill during the off-season.  I sympathize with this argument, especially because I am extremely wary of the Nats wasting a significant portion of the Strasburg era (subject for another post).  However, I differ with Mr. Boswell in his assessment in how close the Nats are to being a good team.  The Nats need significant upgrades in RF, CF, 2nd, and possibly SS if Desmond doesn’t improve his defense.  (Nyger Morgan might turn things around, but I don’t think Nyger Morgan has recovered from last year’s wrist injury and there is a reason the Pirates were willing to get rid of him for next to nothing.)  In addition, the Nats starting pitching staff is nothing but a series of question marks.  (Yes I believe Strasburg is Cy Young Award machine but that has yet to be established.)

Ideally what I would like to see is the Nationals trade Adam Dunn for a major league ready 2nd base prospect who could possibly hit in the number two spot and a good young (Low A/High A) pitching prospect.  Then I’d like to see the Nats resign Dunn in the off-season as part of a comprehensive effort to upgrade the line up and seriously commit the resources to be competitive next season.  I would prefer that the Nats keep Willingham because he is under the Nats control for another season and there is no risk of losing him to free agency.  The truth is the Nats have a lot of wholes to fill and if the Nats can use Dunn to fill a couple of those wholes, then I say they should certainly make that move and then look to bring Dunn back after they have rented him out to a contender.  Obviously, if the Nats trade Dunn as a rental he is not obligated to resign with the Nats in the off-season and he may very well choose not to.  But the Nats will have at least gained another good young player or two and they will have $10 mil in salary freed up to fill other wholes.

Simple fact is the Nats aren’t at a place as an organization where it would be prudent to bypass the opportunity to add young talent to their ML roster and/or their minor league system.  All that said, the asking price for Dunn should be pretty high, because Dunn certainly has value in a Nats uniform and not just as a bargaining chip.

Last point.  One thing Boswell and I agree on completely, is that it is time for the Nats to get serious about putting a contender on the field.  With Steven Strasburg the Nats have caught lightening in a bottle.  If they squander the excitement and good will currently surrounding the ball club, the Nats might be permanently relegated to after thought status in the D.C. Sports scene.

I find this criticism odd.  First, I am one who is always more than willing to criticize Wizards’ management which has historically been among the very worst in sports.  However, the moves the Wizards are making seem quite low risk and shrewd.  Getting some value while giving up very little is generally a good strategy in any business.  It particularly makes sense in this situation because the Wizards really had no chance at landing one of the superstar free agents available and even if they could land someone like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire its likely that still would not be enough to put them in championship contention.  So the Wizards have wisely decided to take advantage of other teams’ desperate maneuvering to clear cap space.  In short the frenzy to free cap space in the hopes of attracting Lebron James or Dwayne Wade as created a situation where there is likely more cap space than there are quality free agents to spend that cap space on.  In other words cap space has now likely reached a point where it is an overvalued commodity and other assets (like draft picks and good roll players) are relatively undervalued .  Especially considering that the original teams of the free agents can spend up to the limit of the salary structure to keep their own free agents regardless of their cap status.

So, if Lebron or Wade resign with their original teams, several teams are going to be left with huge amounts of cash and significant pressure to spend it.  Consequently, teams are bound to overspend, drive up the price for remaining free agents, and possibly hinder their franchise for the next six seasons with huge max contracts.

The over spending is actually already occurring, Memphis (a team with serious financial troubles) just signed Rudy Gay, a good but not great player, to max contract that will pay Mr. Gay an average of about $20 mil. per season for the next six seasons.  The Hawks also coughed up a max contract for Joe Johnson, another very good but not elite player.

In the end it may actually be the Wizards that emerge the winners from this historic free agency period, because they chose not to spend but rather acquire undervalued assets from the teams hoping to win the Lebron lottery.  Of course, Chicago may sign Lebron and Bosh and dominant the NBA for the next five years and Wizards might be kicking themselves for their part in making that dynasty possible.  However, it is just as likely that in a couple years many of the Wizards rivals will be bogged down by huge contracts and mismatched talent and the Wizards will have a team with emerging young talent and the cap space to add a key piece needed to build a contender.